NFL Top 10 After Week 4: Bears and Jaguars Climb, Bills Slide
Buffalo got away with it last week. Five turnovers against the Chargers, a win anyway, and enough good work from the defense to send everyone home relieved.
Try making a habit of that.
The Bills had another game there to be won on Sunday, right up until New England took the lead late and Josh Allen threw away Buffalo’s final chance. A week after losing 35–6 to Jacksonville, the Patriots had beaten the team we ranked fourth.
Which leaves us with a few things to reconsider. How much were we overlooking while Buffalo kept winning? Did Jacksonville deserve more credit for taking New England apart? And what, exactly, does Chicago need to do before we stop treating the quarterback injuries as the most interesting thing about its season?
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The Bears have won with three different quarterbacks. They just followed a 20-point victory over Philadelphia by holding the Jets to seven first downs. At some point, the discussion has to move from who is missing to how well the playerson the field are playing.
So Chicago moves up. Jacksonville moves further. The Raiders lose for the first time and barely move at all, because there is a difference between losing to Kansas City in the final minutes and giving us reason to doubt everything that came before.
As always, these rankings are about what teams have earned this season. I’m weighing who they beat, how they played and whether the problems we saw a week ago are still showing up. Here is where that leaves our top 10.
1. San Francisco 49ers (4–0)
Last week: 1 | Beat Denver 24–14
Denver had this where it wanted it at halftime. Three points apiece, San Francisco’s offense struggling to turn possessions into much, and no reason for the Broncos to feel overwhelmed by the team sitting first on this list.
The 49ers still won by 10.
I like that about this result. San Francisco had already shown it could score freely. Sunday required patience, a defense that could hold up while the offense worked through a poor half, and a contribution from special teams. Siran Neal supplied that last part by forcing and recovering a fumble on a punt return, setting up the first touchdown.
Even then, Denver made it a three-point game late. Purdy’s answer was a 56-yard touchdown to George Kittle. After spending much of the afternoon making San Francisco work, the Broncos could not keep the game close when they most needed a stop.
The number I keep coming back to is zero: no sacks allowed through four games. That will not last forever, but it helps explain why a quiet half does not have to turn into an afternoon of punts and desperate third downs. Purdy has had a chance to keep playing without repeatedly being dragged backward.
Kansas City has a legitimate claim to first. I still prefer San Francisco’s month overall, particularly the comfortable wins over the Rams and Miami alongside this one. The Arizona game was close, and Denver caused problems. Neither has yet made the 49ers pay for an imperfect afternoon.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (4–0)
Last week: 2 | Beat Las Vegas 30–27
There were stretches Sunday when the Raiders had every reason to believe they were going to beat Kansas City. They led at halftime. They led again with less than five minutes remaining. Mahomes finished with 15 completions in 30 attempts.
Then Kenneth Walker III made sure none of that was enough.
Walker ran for 177 yards, and his two late touchdowns arrived 19 seconds apart. Between them, Kansas City forced a fumble on the kickoff and recovered it. Las Vegas barely had time to process losing the lead before it was down 11.
Of course, a kickoff fumble is not something the Chiefs can expect every week. Walker being a major part of their offense is another matter. On an afternoon when the passing game was uneven, Kansas City had a running back capable of changing the game without waiting for Mahomes to manufacture everything.
That is a welcome development for the Chiefs and an unpleasant one for everyone defending them. It is hard enough to account for Mahomes when Kansas City needs a play. The Raiders also had to deal with a runner who kept giving them problems.
The win over Denver remains the Chiefs’ most convincing performance. Beating a previously unbeaten Las Vegas team adds a different sort of satisfaction, although I would have liked to see them spend less of Sunday chasing the game before moving them above San Francisco.
Second is hardly a slight. Kansas City has beaten two teams from our previous top 10 and has yet to lose.
3. Minnesota Vikings (4–0)
Last week: 3 | Beat Miami 15–10
I can understand anyone looking at Minnesota’s last two opponents and wondering why the Vikings have made such hard work of them.
Tampa Bay and Miami are both winless. Minnesota beat the Buccaneers by seven and the Dolphins by five. Will Reichard kicked all 15 points Sunday. There is only so long you can keep asking a defense to make every field goal feel sufficient.
But Hockenson deserves a little credit for the absence of a late touchdown. On his 13th catch, he slid at Miami’s 2-yard line with the Dolphins out of timeouts. Minnesota could finish the game by taking knees. He chose to end it there rather than give Miami another possession.
I would rather have that decision than a prettier score.
There is more to Minnesota’s place here than a clean record. The Vikings beat Green Bay 39–22 and went to Chicago and won 9–3. They have allowed 51 points across four games. Chicago’s performances since that loss have made the trip to Soldier Field look like a better win than it did at the time.
The offense is why Minnesota stays behind Kansas City. The defense, the Chicago victory and the fact that nobody has beaten the Vikings are why they remain above the Bears.
Eventually, someone will make Minnesota chase points. For now, opponents are having enough trouble finding points of their own.
4. Chicago Bears (3–1)
Last week: 6 | Beat the New York Jets 23–12
Ben Johnson has had to use Caleb Williams, Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent to get through four weeks. All three have helped deliver a win. If you had been told that before the opener, you probably would have assumed Chicago’s season was going to be a struggle.
Instead, the Bears have spent the past two games making life miserable for somebody else.
The Jets managed seven first downs Sunday. Chicago had 34. Bagent threw for 268 yards, Monangai ran for 146, and the Bears finished with more than three times New York’s total yardage. The score was 23–12, but an 11-point margin barely describes how little of the game the Jets controlled.
Their last touchdown came with more than nine minutes remaining. They never got the ball back. Chicago used 18 plays to take the game to its conclusion, which is about as satisfying a finish as a coach protecting a lead could ask for.
What makes the Bears difficult to keep down at sixth is that this followed a 27–7 win over Philadelphia. One good afternoon with a reserve quarterback could be dismissed as an opponent having a bad night. Two convincing wins, with another change at quarterback between them, demand a little more attention.
Minnesota still has the head-to-head win, and scoring three points in that game remains part of Chicago’s season. I’m not skipping over it. But the Bears have done enough since to move ahead of the next group, especially with a defense that is making the offense’s job considerably easier.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (3–1)
Last week: 9 | Beat Cincinnati 22–17
Perhaps we were a little slow with Jacksonville.
Last week, I kept the Jaguars behind Denver because Denver had beaten them. A reasonable tiebreaker then. It becomes less useful if we keep applying it while ignoring everything else the two teams do.
Jacksonville followed that loss by beating New England 35–6 and winning at Cincinnati. Denver has now lost by double digits to both Kansas City and San Francisco. Meanwhile, Cleveland, which Jacksonville beat 34–10 in the opener, has won three straight. The Patriots just won at Buffalo. Those earlier Jaguars wins are holding up rather well.
Cincinnati was much messier. Thirteen penalties for 125 yards is an exhausting way to spend an afternoon, and Burrow threw for 428 yards. The Bengals were still threatening to win it when Rayuan Lane III tackled Chase Brown a yard short on fourth-and-10 with 50 seconds left.
I would not use that game to argue Jacksonville has everything sorted out defensively. I would use it to argue the Jaguars can survive an afternoon when they keep giving themselves problems, particularly when Lawrence plays as cleanly as he did: 18 completions in 23 attempts, a touchdown and no interceptions.
Chicago gets the narrow edge because its recent wins have required fewer escapes. Jacksonville’s larger body of work gets it above Las Vegas. And if the Jaguars stop having productive plays wiped out by flags, they might spare themselves some of these finishes.
6. Las Vegas Raiders (3–1)
Last week: 5 | Lost to Kansas City 30–27
I’m not going to watch Las Vegas lead Kansas City inside the final five minutes and decide the Raiders have been exposed.
They lost. They also threw for 365 yards, kept answering the Chiefs and gave themselves a very real chance to leave unbeaten. Cousins found Brock Bowers for a late touchdown even after the game had swung sharply against them. There was plenty here that would encourage me if I were a Raiders fan.
The kickoff fumble would also be difficult to stop thinking about.
Kansas City had just taken the lead. Las Vegas needed a possession, a chance to settle things and an opportunity for an offense that had moved the ball all afternoon. Instead, the Chiefs recovered the kick return fumble and scored again on the next play. Suddenly the Raiders needed much more than one good drive.
A week earlier, Las Vegas had forced the late turnovers against New Orleans and scored the final 19 points. Sunday was a reminder of how much those plays had contributed to its unbeaten start. The offense cannot always be asked to repair a mistake that gives the opponent the ball right back.
Sixth feels fair. Chicago and Jacksonville have done enough to pass the Raiders, but I do not see a reason to put Seattle or Buffalo above them based on this weekend. Las Vegas played one of the best teams on the list and came close to winning. That still counts for something here.
7. Seattle Seahawks (3–1)
Last week: 7 | Beat the Los Angeles Chargers 30–23
Fourteen penalties. One hundred and fifty yards.
Seattle could have made this a fairly straightforward afternoon against a winless team. Instead, it spent parts of the second half helping the Chargers back into a game it had led 27–6. Four of those penalties were 15-yarders on Los Angeles’ two touchdown drives.
Mike Macdonald has plenty to work with on defense. The Seahawks intercepted two passes, recovered a fumble and recorded four sacks. Their running game helped build the lead. There were enough good plays to win, and enough avoidable mistakes to make the final score much closer than it should have been.
The frustration is that last week’s loss to Washington also involved Seattle wasting good work. The offense moved the ball, but three turnovers helped the Commanders win. This time the Seahawks won the turnover battle and then gave away ground through penalties.
You can see why I want to like them more than seventh. You can also see why they are still here.
New England winning in Buffalo gives Seattle’s earlier victory over the Patriots a little extra value. It helps break a close call with the Bills below them. But beating the Chargers this way does not justify jumping the Raiders.
San Francisco is next. Seattle has enough ability to make that game interesting. Giving the 49ers anything like 150 yards in penalties would be an extraordinary way to waste it.
8. Buffalo Bills (3–1)
Last week: 4 | Lost to New England 29–26
Maybe fourth was a little generous last week.
Buffalo deserved credit for surviving five turnovers against the Chargers. I gave it plenty. But the danger with a win like that is letting admiration for the escape crowd out concern about why the escape was necessary.
The Bills could not get away with another difficult finish Sunday. Drake Maye found Efton Chism III for the go-ahead touchdown, and Allen’s late interception ended the reply. New England gained 405 yards and converted both of its fourth-down attempts. Buffalo had several chances to get off the field before the game reached Allen’s final possession.
The defense has now allowed at least 29 points in three of four games. Whatever confidence Allen inspires, that is an uncomfortable amount to keep putting on an offense.
Dropping four places for a three-point loss sounds harsh until you look at who is moving past Buffalo. Chicago has put together two convincing wins. Jacksonville demolished the team that just beat the Bills. Las Vegas lost a close game to Kansas City, while Seattle has already beaten New England.
None of that proves Buffalo would lose to all four tomorrow. That is not the question this list is answering. On the football we have seen so far, I can no longer make a strong argument for keeping the Bills above them.
9. Baltimore Ravens (3–1)
Last week: Unranked | Beat Tennessee 24–18
Baltimore went into halftime with a 24–7 lead and came out without Lamar Jackson. The rest of the afternoon was mostly about getting to the end without losing everything it had built.
Jackson had thrown for 222 yards and two touchdowns before leaving with an ankle injury. The Ravens did not score in the second half. Against a winless Tennessee team, a game that had offered the possibility of a comfortable finish became one Baltimore had to protect.
It would be unfair to describe the two halves without mentioning the quarterback change. It would also be generous to call the final result convincing.
The Ravens were at their best when Madubuike stopped Tony Pollard on fourth-and-goal at the 2. Baltimore then drove 98 yards for a touchdown. Tennessee went from a chance to tie the game to being down two scores, and the Ravens ultimately needed that cushion.
Their win at Indianapolis, 41–23, remains the strongest reason to take this start seriously. They have since beaten Dallas and Tennessee, with a loss to New Orleans between the opener and those two victories. Enough for ninth, although the recent games have not persuaded me to go much higher.
Jackson’s health will dominate the conversation now. For the ranking, I’m giving Baltimore credit for the three wins already earned rather than trying to guess what its quarterback situation might look like next Sunday.
10. Cleveland Browns (3–1)
Last week: Unranked | Beat Pittsburgh 27–24
This was the hardest spot to settle.
Denver has beaten Jacksonville and the Rams. The Rams just won at Philadelphia and have already beaten the Giants comfortably. The Giants are 3–1 themselves. There is no obvious answer sitting here waiting to be written down.
I’m giving Cleveland the place, narrowly, because it has won three consecutive games after an awful opener and has repeatedly found enough offense late to finish them. Thursday required another response after Pittsburgh tied the score inside the final two minutes. Watson got the Browns into range, and Andre Szmyt made a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left.
The Browns could have spared themselves the drama. They scored three touchdowns in the second quarter, then let Pittsburgh back in, with Watson’s fourth-quarter interception helping the comeback. By the end, a game Cleveland had been positioned to control depended on a long field goal.
Nor am I ignoring the arithmetic. The Browns’ three wins have come by four, three and three points. Jacksonville beat them by 24. They are 3–1 and have been outscored by 14.
That is why they are tenth. Carolina beating Detroit makes Cleveland’s win over the Panthers a little more encouraging, but there is still a lot of work between this ranking and genuine confidence in the Browns. They have earned a place in the discussion. They have not earned much room for another poor performance.
Just outside
Denver Broncos: I would listen to an argument for keeping Denver in. Beating Jacksonville and the Rams is a good pair of wins, and losing to our top two teams is hardly embarrassing. The margins hurt: a 21-point loss to Kansas City and a 10-point loss to San Francisco. At 2–2, the Broncos have spent too much of their month being clearly second best to stay eighth.
Los Angeles Rams: The strongest alternative to Cleveland for me. Coming back to beat Philadelphia 24–20 gives the Rams another good result alongside their 28–6 win over the Giants. The Browns get the narrowest of preferences for putting three wins together, but the gap is small enough that another strong Rams performance could settle it quickly.
New York Giants: Three wins, including one over Dallas, deserve respect. Wins over Tennessee and Arizona are less persuasive, and the Giants’ one loss was a heavy one against the Rams. I want to see another result against better opposition before moving them into this group.
New England Patriots: Winning at Buffalo is a substantial response to being beaten 35–6 by Jacksonville. It also leaves two very different performances to judge in successive weeks. I’m willing to reconsider the Patriots after Sunday. I’m not ready to forget the previous Sunday.
Detroit Lions: Last week, the question was whether the defense could give the offense more help. Then Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, and Carolina scored 32. Detroit can make almost any game entertaining. To get back into this top 10, it needs to make an opponent’s afternoon considerably less enjoyable.
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